Category: WA10

National Precinct Map by Decision Desk HQ

Or, rather, three reasons why the nascent movement to oust centrist Democratic Rep. Denny Heck is a bad idea.

Tomorrow night there will be a meeting at Traditions in Olympia to talk about the idea of ousting Rep. Heck from Congress. The reasons are what you might expect, that Heck isn’t as liberal as we need Democrats to be to really change our country:

The banking and insurance industries are bankrolling his campaign, and he gets the vast majority of his support from the business community. If we are ever going to achieve the progressive change our nation and world so desperately needs, then we are going to have to replace Trump, the Republicans, and corrupt establishment Democrats in Congress with representatives who will reject corporate money, stand up to corporate power, and put people over profits.

Whether Rep. Heck represents “the people” or progressives in general, his only real job is to represent his constituents. And, it’s an open question whether his brand of politics is a fair representation of the WA10. Though geographically centered on Olympia, the 10th stretches up into Pierce County, mostly around Joint Base Lewis McChord. So, if any anything defines the WA10, it isn’t the culture of liberal Olympia, it is the institution of the military.

A Republican could win in the WA 10. Or, at the very least, a conservative independent could.

1. Since 2012, Heck really hasn’t been challenged.  Despite Pierce County supplying a steady stream of down ticket Republicans to challenge Heck, they’ve all been underfunded. In three elections, he has far out-raised his Republican opponents. I mean far outstripped.

Despite getting close to 60 percent in two Presidential cycle elections (2012, 2016), he has never broken 60. Also, his one off cycle election (2014) Heck got 54 percent, despite out-raising his opponent by over $1.5 million.

You could assume that given a better financed conservative opponent, he’d be in trouble.


2. The WA10 is slightly (I mean ever so slightly) more conservative than the state of Washington. 


If you take every statewide candidate last year and look how they did in the WA10, conservative candidates did .38 percent better than their statewide returns. This doesn’t mean a whole heck of a lot. But, in a Presidential year when there were certainly more Democrats going to the polls, Republicans did better in WA10 than they did statewide. This isn’t saying a lot, but it does underline that the WA10 is less liberal than it should be for a safe Democratic congressman.

3. Independents in Thurston County


This is a sort of constant theme for me, but conservatives can win countywide races in Thurston County. If they drop the Republican label. Sure, typically, Congressional races are much more partisan than county commission races with national party organizations having a ton of input. But, with identified independents in Washington becoming the largest single group in the state, why not run a conservative independent against Heck?

So, imagine a world where a well-funded progressive knocks off Denny Heck in the primary and runs to the left off another well-funded conservative running as an Independent. In this world, I could see the WA10 flipping from a somewhat safe (if ignored) congressional district for a Democrat to one represented by a conservative.

When WA10 was first rolled out to the public two and a half years ago, it was supposedly a competitive district. Dino Ross had done fairly well (47 to 53 percent against an incumbent Dem) in the precincts that would make up the new congressional district that now stretches from Fort Lewis through Thurston County to Shelton.

But, since then, one election has indicated that Democrats may well consider this a safe district. Denny Heck beat up on challenger Dick Muri with 58 percent of the vote in the first election for the new CD in 2012. He also out-raised both Republican challengers with over $2 million to their combined $500,000.

Which leads me to my next point. So far this cycle (FEC info here), Heck has out-raised Joyce McDonald $500k to just $33k. She’s not even in the money race right now. It seems that even contributors have written off either McDonald or the WA 10 as a GOP district all-together.

Which is odd, because during the last mid-term race, a Republican did fairly well in the WA-10. Now, in a year with a significant GOP tide, the party seems to have not even entered the race.

A recently leaked state GOP memo on the state of the current races offers even fewer clues. While the memo makes strong arguments to try to attract women voters, it singles out a female Democratic congressional candidate as the party’s single focus for the cycle. Obviously leaving out a female Republican candidate facing a male Democrat.

WA 10 seems like it could be a competitive Republican district, but I can’t tell why they don’t make more of an effort here. Not that I really want them to, I like Denny Heck.

On my primary ballot, there was only one race that really mattered. Even technically mattered. I live in the central portion of the county, so neither PUD race that actually had a primary was on my ballot. I also don’t live in Lacey, so a very important fire levy was also not on my ballot.

The only race that had more than two candidates was the congressional race, incumbent Denny Heck versus a Republican (Pierce County councilmember) and two independents.

I was going to write this post to criticize those two independents, but I really only think one actually deserves criticism. Sam Wright is a typical crank sort of candidate. Not putting much of any effort into campaigning, shooting for a high profile position with no real effort behind his campaign. Enough about him.

On the other hand, Jennifer Ferguson is fascinating. She only ended up getting just about 5 percent of the vote, but I hope this doesn’t end up being her last race. Like Sue Gunn two years ago, I think Ferguson should aim lower next time, and get her foot in elected office somewhere else.

In some pretty interesting ways, Ferguson really does represent the WA10. I wrote awhile back how WA10 really is a military base community district, and in a lot of ways she speaks to that community.

From her website:

Do you want someone to serve you that values people and quality of
life?  Would you want someone to represent you that has a community
track record of service and commitment such as volunteering 2500 hours
in less than 13 months at Madigan with soldiers in acute distress and
other mental health disorders to include PTSD?  Would you like someone
to serve you and represent you that believes in standing up for what is
right and has shown it over and again such as going to congress when the
PTSD program at Madigan was shut down causing a congressional
investigation? Would you want someone to serve and represent you on a
large scale that has served and represented their entire life as a
volunteer in the military community and in University Place PTA,
President of UP Soccer Association, University Place Sheriffs Academy,
and the list goes on?

In her work as a mental health provider, Gigi has worked with youth
on drugs, youth in gangs, women as domestic violence victims, and
families who have lost their children to the state for many reasons.
Jennifer is a hard worker and committed to making this a better place
than she found it.  Jennifer is committed to her faith which causes her
to touch hearts, minds and lives where she goes. 

Don’t get me wrong, I really like Denny Heck. I voted for him this week and I’ll vote again for him in November. He does a great job on JBLM and other WA10 issues and is a polished and intelligent politician.

But, there is something about Ferguson that strikes me as very authentically WA10. We’re a very new congressional district, so our political identity is still being developed. But, she seems to speak much more clearly to the concerns of base communities.

So, not this time around, but I think she should take a crack at another local office. Like, who is taking on Doug Richardson next year?

Between PTSD, a standoff, burning, murder, a rampage in Afghanistan and now this crazy hit-man going to blow up the capitol story, Joint Base Lewis McChord has had a better few weeks.

At the very least, the base and the community that is around it is feeling the strain of over a decade of deployments. So, our new congressional district will be centered on the communities around JBLM. Don’t you think these new stories would wrap up into some sort of narrative of how this new district relates to the federal government?

So far, two of the three candidates have soft language on the website talking about veterans, but nothing too specific or strong as far as I can tell.

Heck:

Congress needs to ensure these heroes and their families get the medical and educational support they need to transition successfully back into civilian life.

Muri:

He’s seen firsthand the impact that long deployments overseas have on our fighting men and women and their families
…
There are brave men and women that fight daily to preserve the freedoms that we, in America, enjoy. For that, they deserve the honor and respect they are due. We must ensure they have access to proper benefits for themselves and their families, never worrying if they are protected. Our veterans deserve nothing less.

Despite being an Army veteran, only Stan Flemming doesn’t seem to make some blanket “we need to help the vets” statement on his website.

Its ironic, that with the retirement of Norm Dicks, who is the ranking member on Defense Appropriations, Washington State will lose one of its most powerful voices in this venue. Dicks has already brought up PTSD back east.