Olympia Time

History, politics, people of Oly WA

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Improving Gary Edwards’ math

A few weeks ago I took a shot at Gary Edwards’ fuzzy math on population change in Thurston County. In this post I wanted to take a closer look at the deeper assumptions in what he’s trying to get at.

His point (basically) was that although the population has increased in Thurston County, the number of deputies has stayed the same. The problem was that the population has increased (in unincorporated Thurston County) only half the amount he claimed. Which is okay, from his point of view, I suppose because population still went up while the number of deputies stayed flat.

But, that statement seems to assume a result, such as an increase in crime. So, let’s take a look.

1995 Most recent Difference
Lacey 50.00 64.60 14.60
Olympia 67.80 86.30 18.50
Yelm 75.90 78.00 2.10
Tenino 86.00 42.00 -44.00
Tumwater 75.30 84.20 8.90
Thurston unincorporated 32.90 36.30 3.40

So, what it looks like here is that the crime rate did go up in Thurston County, but not nearly the rate that it increased in Lacey and Olympia. If we have a problem with an increase in crime, its in the urban areas, not in rural Thurston County with its stable level of policing.

Also, let’s take a look at another metric, the total number of police in each Thurston County city and the ratio of police to population:

1995 total 2015 total Change 1995 ratio 2015 ratio Change
Lacey 38 50 12 1.51 1.08 -0.43
Olympia 67 68 1 1.8 1.33 -0.47
Yelm 9 12 3 4.3 1.47 -2.83
Tenino 5 2 -3 2.38 0.87 -1.51
Rainier 4 0 -4 2.78 0 -2.78
Tumwater 20 22 2 1.93 1.41 -0.52
Thurston unincorporated 79 80 1 0.72 0.57 -0.15

Every police department has seen a decrease in the number of police on patrol compared to the population. By this metric, the ratio of police per person has dropped the least in the Thurston County sheriff’s office than anywhere else locally.

So, while Edwards is still right that population went up and the level of policing stayed stable, he’s implying a connection that really isn’t there. The Thurston County sheriff’s department saw a stable cop to resident ratio (compared to other local law enforcement departments) and this did not result in an increase in crime. 


Also, here’s the spreadsheet (plus references) I was working from all along, just in case you want to check my math.

The best reason they should change the name of the city of Lacey

The history goes that if not for another community down on the Columbia River, Lacey would be called Woodland, which was the original name Lacey-folks put down on an application for a post office.

This was decades before Lacey actually became a city, but post office names usually reflected some sort of area identity.
But, the application came back as rejected because the other Woodland had gotten there first. So, Lacey (after a developer O.C. Lacey) replaced Woodland.

Called Chester Lacey in one newspaper article, this shadowy person was usually identified in newspapers and legal records of the time as O. C. Lacey. Contrary to some later historical accounts, he was never called O.C de Lacy or de Lacey. In the early 1890s, the enterprising individual worked variously as an Olympia-based real estate speculator, lawyer, and Justice of the Peace. Apparently hard hit by the economic depression of the later 1890s, he cut ties to the area and left for first Seattle, then Spokane, and finally parts unknown. 

But why was Lacey proposed as the name for the post office in the second application to the federal government? This is a real mystery since the reason for the choice remains unknown. Surviving records do not indicate any particularly strong ties between O.C. Lacey and the people seeking a post office.

And, if anyone would know anything about Lacey, Drew Crooks would know.

Lacey didn’t have deep roots here. And, other than lending his name to a post office that grew into a civic identity, he didn’t leave a mark.

So, if we’re talking about changing the name of North Thurston School District, we should consider changing the name of Lacey. At least we know who North Thurston is named after, even if it is a racist liar.

There have got to be loads of better names for the general community east of Olympia.

The best reason they should change the name of the North Thurston School District

Mayor of Lacey Andy Ryder (and North Thurston grad):


“It would be a great sort of present from the school district that to acknowledge that they are our school district,” Ryder said.

Mr. Lacey Ken Balsley:


The school district must become part of the community. Sometimes it takes a great deal of effort. Some times its as simple as taking on the name of the community it represents.

I think in a lot of ways, Balsley and Ryder and right, even though more people live in the not-Lacey unincorporated parts of the school district.

Lacey population (2014): 45,446
North Thurston population (2014): 97,942
Non-Lacey, NTSD: 53,496

But, beyond numbers, there is a better reason to drop Thurston all together. The original Thurston was a racist liar and the moniker itself was forced on us by Oregonians.


You can read much much more about Samuel Thurston, the 1850s Oregon representative who our county is named after here: Why do we still call it Thurston County?

But, here is the too-long-didn’t-read on Thurston:

  • Despite an agreement in treaty, Thurston worked to screw British citizens out of property in the newly American territory in the 1850s.
  • Thurston was the primary force behind racial exclusion laws that outlawed racial minorities to moving to the Oregon Territory (which Washington was once part of).
  • And, when Washington Territory was separated from the Oregon Territory, it was Oregon delegates that chose to honor Sam Thurston (who had recently died), not people from what was then becoming Washington.

Checking Gary Edwards’ Math

Former Thurston County Sheriff Gary Edwards is running for county commissioner. So, it would make a lot of sense that he’s making public safety (more cops on the streets, or deputies on the road) a campaign priority.

Number two in fact:

I can’t disagree with his statement that the number of deputies hasn’t increased in over 20 years, but I thought I’d check his population numbers.

As I’ve been reminded, the Thurston County Sheriff only works in the unincorporated parts of the county. So, “the population” that his statement refers to must be the unincorporated population. Otherwise, the statement wouldn’t be unnecessarily inflated.

But, either way, he’s wrong.

1995 Most recent Difference
Thurston 192,013 262,388 70,375
Lacey 26,419 44,919
Olympia 39,292 48,338
Yelm 2,242 8,223
Tenino 1,299 1709
Rainier 1,350 1,923
Tumwater 11,534 18,820
Incorporated subtotal 82,136 123,932
Thurston unincorporated 109,877 138,456 28,579

He could use the top number, the total difference between Thurston County in 1995 and right now and be closer to his 60,000 number. But lumping in the populations of cities covered by their own police forces would be misleading.
Or, he could cut his number in half and be more accurate. But, the number would seem less impressive, especially against a six figure total population figure.
What really impacts me is that this table took me all of ten minutes to put together. Getting the accurate number wasn’t hard for me, Edwards should have bothered to do the same work. Not doing so make it seem like to me that this is more along the lines of something he heard somewhere and decided to make a campaign platform.
It is also worth noting that a total population is not a very good standard for judging the effectiveness of policing. What would be a better standard would be comparing crime rates in 1995 and 2016, right?

Race in Thurston County by maps

Statistical Atlas, in a lot of ways, is something I’ve spent a lot of time pinning for. While the tool is very simply just overlaying public census data over a map, this is the kind of visualization that hasn’t been freely available. And, it opens up (more easily) a broader discussion of how and where we live.

Take for example, race in Thurston County.

Thurston County is a pretty white place, but there are a few interesting features of this map. There are a couple of corners where whiteness is not a majority. One stretch of far Lacey, the area around the Nisqually reservation and small section near Grand Mound in the south:

The first hole in the whiteness map is explained by this map of hispanic populations (topping at 45 percent). The small area around Grand Mound is a plurality hispanic area:

This map on black population (topping out at 15.8 percent) shows another major theme. While the central part of urban Thurston County is pretty white, most minority populations are located in nearby neighborhoods of Tumwater or older portions of Lacey. Showing why possibly it was a really good idea to move the county’s ethnic celebration to Lacey.

You see the same pattern here with the Asian map (topping at 18 percent), but instead of Tumwater, the westside and noticeably Cooper Point. You also have here an explanation of the second non-white majority area, with Asian being the plurality.

And, “other,” which from a reading of the map, would probably mean Native American, given the deeper reds closer to the Nisqually Reservation (topping at 39.7 percent), which is the third non-white majority area.

These are fascinating maps. I was fairly surprised by how white this particular tract was in downtown Olympia. Well, not totally surprised. I suppose it does back up what I would’ve assumed had I thought about it for a few minutes. But almost 95 percent white was a surprising number.

So, it really isn’t the wettest winter in Seattle History. Well, in a way it sort of is

Cliff Mass, simply by moving the starting point further back to October, says it is really just the second wettest.

But, as a history person, I am going to pick on the use of the phrase “in Seattle History.”

So, obviously, you know where I’m going. Record keeping on this sort of thing started in 1894. Obviously, even if you are going to only count the white dominated part of our regional history, there are at least 4 decades of rain seasons that aren’t accounted for.

And if you’re a broad minded progressive, you’ll quickly point out that Seattle History did not start with the Denny Party landing on Alki, and that somewhere back in the history of all humans along Puget Sound (even in its most recent post ice age state) there were likely much wetter winters.

1894 though, right? Doesn’t that make sense?

Let’s go back five years. Washington was poised on the edge of a new era. After decades of federal servitude as a territory and economic servitude as a commercial outpost to San Francisco, Washington started the year with a constitutional convention with an aim at statehood. Then, it seems like every city in the state caught fire, most notable Seattle. It burned to the ground.

While on the face a long series of tragedies, the 1889 fires gave the cities an excuse to grow beyond their pioneer and territorial constructions and build something better. The year after the fire, Seattle was able to stretch beyond Puget Sound rival in population (42k to 36k) and never looked back since.

The fire laid waste the city, but it gave the people there the opportunity to build a brick and mortar, modern, and fireproof city. And, if you think of this new city as the historic Seattle we know today, then 1894 is as a good enough year as any (since it gave the city long enough to rebuild) to start recording historic rainfall.

You can only save KPLU by letting KPLU go (Dr. Lonnie L. Howard is your man)

When I read the PLU president’s short blog post about why, despite public outcry, they’re going to go ahead and sell KPLU to KUOW, all confusion and anger left me. True, this certainly means the loss of an entire newsroom covering my home region.

That itself is a shame. A massive shame. And, it would have been better for PLU to have given their listening public the chance to step up (like in Crosscut’s Colorado example).

But, I hear ya President Krise: PLU doesn’t want to be in the radio business and there is no one that is going to make you be in the radio business. And, the deal is done with KUOW, there isn’t anything anyone can do about that now.

The best time to jumpstart a new public radio community non-profit to save the KPLU newsroom would have been months ago.

The second best time is today. And, we don’t need President Krise.


We do need President Howard though.

President Lonnie L. Howard runs the Clover Park Technical College. And, after the University of Washington and Pacific Lutheran University, Clover Park owns (but does not actually run) the third NPR news signal that covers much of Puget Sound.

Sure, the KVTI signal is smaller compared to KPLU and KUOW.

KVTI:

 

KPLU:

KUOW:

And, these maps don’t even include the small army of repeater stations that KUOW and KPLU deploy to cover the rest of the state.

But, that being what it is, the biggest issue is rallying the forces that are trying to save KPLU (or at least their newsroom) to focus on a newish creation.

By focussing on KVTI, these folks would have a much softer target, because Clover Park is a public school. PLU can do what it wants as long as their board is united. If they don’t want to be in the radio business, they don’t have a larger public to account to.

But, if the public wants KVTI to be something different, to end their agreement with Washington State University (which currently provides programming to KVTI under and outsourcing agreement).

But, then again, President Krise at PLU is correct. The market for over the air public radio content is shrinking. While the public need for an independent newsroom is great, the financial support for one might not be.

So, there might be another, in between, route that isn’t quite building a brand new public radio newsroom operation out of KVTI’s broadcast signal. And, therefore, breaking the agreement with WSU.

What we’re really talking about is the loss of locally produced, good and newsy (NPRish) audio content, whether is be over the airwaves or over the internet (streaming or podcasted).

Earlier this week, we saw the joining forces of KBTC and Crosscut. This is an example of a slow growing (but still growing by all accounts) web based news service and a traditional broadcaster.

It might be possible to string together a series of local web broadcasts and podcasts (similar to Panoply, Radiotopia or Maximum Fun) and partner with WSU to sideload them onto the air.

All things being equal, I think this second idea is better. It starts small, but it tries to in the end recreate what the KPLU newsroom had provided to the region in a more sustainable way. Being on the air is important, but it isn’t the only game.

Also, the battle with PLU over KPLU is all but lost. It is time to move on and find another solution. We are really losing more newsrooms and reporters in Puget Sound than we should. But, our efforts should be put into creating the new thing that trying to save the last thing.

In 1891 when someone stood up against Thankgiving

C.B. Reynolds of the Washington Secular Union in 1891:

We no objection to pumpkin pie, but we do protest against its being seasoned with theology.

That is about the best quote ever.

And, the quote really puts a light on how far back our churched vs. unchurched tradition goes back up here. Although I doubt the WSU had a long tradition (hard to find any evidence of them beyond the early 1890s), it was already being pointed out that our region is pretty ungodly 25 years later:

The great problem, to my mind, in the Pacific Northwest is lack of religious life. Many causes contribute to this. The newness of the country, its people coming here from all parts of the world, strangers to each other, without the family and home connections; the population is cosmopolitan, with nearly every nationality represented, with a large proportion of Southern Europeans and Orientals, who have no religious life nor Sunday observance.

It didn’t matter in the end what Reynold’s and the WSU wanted, Gov. Ferry did his part and issued a proclamation and honored the almighty anyway. I mean, who else are you going to be thanking?

Not really the best of the last four months (Olyblogosphere for Friday, November 20, 2015)

First Olyblogosphere since “the break?” You think I’d go back and find all the best blog posts from the last few months. Nope. Not really.

But enjoy!

1. Olysketcher is so good. I mean, good good good.

2. Olympia, WA may well be a dead blog. Which totally sucks. That blog was pretty damn good.

3. But, on the bright side of things, Olympia Pop Rocks (not technically a blog) is still going strong. Go Jemmy! Go Guire! Especially this episode, which is probably the most non-representative. So much to unpack!

4. Ken reminds us back in the day when Republicans made a big effort to welcome refugees in Washington State.

Notes on the impact of alcohol, prohibition and Thurston County

I was supposed to give a short talk in front of a History Happy Hour earlier this year. At the very last moment I had to beg off, but I really appreciate Len Balli and the folks at the Washington State Historical Society thinking of me. Just to be invited was pretty cool. You guys do good work.


Seriously, just an aside: organizations like the Washington State Historical Society (and libraries, local historical societies, history magazines and museums) are so vital. So vital. If you aren’t doing much to take advantage of what they have to give and provide them with love and support, I wish you would.

So, without further discussion, here is what I was going to talk about:

At two o’clock on a Thursday morning in early April 1913 in Bucoda Murvil Lancaster was home, alone, with her baby when Charles James came crashing into the house. She was probably asleep, finding a few hours of rest between keeping her baby happy and running the household.

Or, maybe she was already awake, walking her child, feeding her child.

But, James smashed the early morning peace, smashing furniture and other (as the newspapers said) household goods.

Charles James was looking for his wife.

Mrs. James had already abandoned the family home in south Thurston County, and Charles had come looking for her. He was obviously already well down the road of intoxication, well lubricated as we might say, with enough drunken enthusiasm to invade a neighbor’s house.

Similar to the Thursday morning when he smashed up the Lancaster House, Charles had already beaten his wife. He’d taken his fists to her at their own house to the point that she “quit the household” with the help of neighbors

The common thread here was that Charles James drank too much. And, when he drank too much, be became violent.

What Mr. James did was not considered a discrete family affair. Domestic violence, fueled by alcohol (like today) was an important public conversation.

But, in a lot of ways, to a lot of people, it was THE public policy discussion of the day. Charles James might be violent. But, should the government allow the sale of the fuel for Charles James violence?

Let’s pull the focus out of Bucoda
Washington has always had alcohol. The Union Brewery was established well before statehood and was the origin-point of Northwest Hops in sat right in the heart of downtown Olympia.

But, almost as soon, we have had the battle between wet and dry politicians. It was one aspect of the urban/rural split. Urban areas were wet, rural areas (in general) dry.

In the early 1890s a dry meeting in Olympia became so crowded so fast that the intended segregation of men and women could not be accomplished. The energetic talks of national prohibitionist speakers was slightly marred by men and women sitting together in the crowd. The organizers promised that future events would be better organized and men and women would be separated.

By the time Charles James began beating his wife and tearing apart neighbors’ homes, the forces of dry had already begun turning the tide in Washington.

A local dry option law was passed, and Thurston County had opted to go dry. This left many unincorporated places like Bucoda effectively out of the bar business, despite having a few bars themselves. The Bucoda bar owners only option was incorporation, which (after a few starts and stops) happened in 1911. It was illegal for Charles James to find his fuel in Thurston County, but the city fathers of Bucoda provided.

In 1914, the prohibition and sale of alcohol was banned in Washington. Not the consumption though. In 1918, Washington went “Bone Dry,” which ended any loopholes left open in 1914.

And, in 1919, Prohibition started nationwide.

But, you could still find a drink in Olympia if you knew where and who
Liquor is mostly water, so it found a way.

What is now a fairly anonymous corner of Olympia, 8th and Chestnut, between Plum and the library,  the back end of a handful of state office buildings, was known during prohibition as a “notorious liquor drive.”

And, of course, Olympia was the state capitol. And, the Hotel Olympian was were all the action was, across the street from the then state capitol. Built in 1918 for the expressed purpose of providing housing for state legislators while they were in town.

Rep. Maude Sweetman was the only woman in the legislature by the late 1920s, and lived in the Hotel Olympian. She provides a clear contrast of what remained of the dry coalition in those later prohibition years and the actual state of things in the hotel Olympian and otherwise.

Liquor laws were not, and in fact, could not be strongly enforced:

Anyone who lives at the Olympian Hotel through a legislative session must more than once be filled with anger and disgust and the nightly revelry a, the noises from which vibrate the hotel court…

…their drunken voices gave to the early morning air the confusion of their tongues, night after night through a whole session.

Let’s wind this up
By 1932, Washington was again ahead of the game when an initiative passed by 60 percent, repealing most of the dry laws.

In 1933, the United States matched pace with the repeal of the 18th Amendment.

And, in early 1934, former Olympia Mayor and state Senator E.N. Steele led the cause to write the rules that got Washington wet again. The Steele Act (which stayed intact until very recently) was defended from over 150 amendments on the floor of the Senate. In one of those rare moments when Olympia really did lead the state, George F. Yantis (another Olympia legislator) guided the Steele Act through the house as the speaker.

You can find a lot of explanations about why prohibition ended. It had become, in over a decade, too hard to prevent people from drinking. It was a joke, an openly mocked public policy against what people were going to do anyway. People with money found liquor and it was unfair for the rest of us not to enjoy.

And today, especially in Washington as we liberalize our other substance control laws, it seems quaint that we once outlawed something as innocent as a bottle of wine

Zoom back into Bucoda
Charles James in fact did not spend much time in jail. Found guilty in May, he was sentenced to three months in the county jail. 

But only after a few weeks, Mrs. James reached out to the governor. In front of the governor himself, the prisoner of Thurston County (Charles James was literally the only prisoner in the jail at that moment) promised he wouldn’t drink anymore. He admitted alcohol got him into trouble and that he would become dry himself.

And, the governor let him go.

Just one more note: I really liked the idea of reading this outloud, so I may at some point, turn it into a podcast sort of thing.
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