History, politics, people of Oly WA

Category: Thurston County (Page 4 of 16)

Where an independent dies in Thurston County (part 1 of more than 1 hopefully)

One of my favorite all time posts here is the one I did wrote about a year and half ago about how Bud Blake won in Thurston County.

It’s my favorite because it showed something new and interesting to me.

For one, it blew up my idea of political party labels and how voters use them. In fact, I could see, voters really did react to a relabelling of a conservative local politician. In recent years a lot of Republicans have taken well funded runs at sitting Democrats on the county council, but have come up short.

But, Blake won, mostly it seems because he decided to label himself as an Independent and not a Republican. The data seems to bear this out. In almost every precinct, from the most liberal to the most conservative, a portion of voters who would not vote for a Republican would vote for an Independent who happened to be conservative.

Since the start of the new campaign season, I’ve heard more than a few times from liberal folks up here that: “We won’t be fooled again. This time we know Independent means Republican.”

There are also two new Independents running for county commissioner who seem like they’d probably be Republicans in another setting. Obviously since one of them used to run regularly as a Republican.

So, my question is, how far out from the central, more liberal, part of Thurston County does this story need to travel before an Independent (really Republican) needs to lose.

Turns out, pretty far.

What I did here was sort precinct results by usually most liberal to most conservative (based on 2012 election results) and started replacing the vote totals from Bud Blake’s 2014 campaign with an aggregate for a Republican in 2012.

That’s a really rough experiment, but it was an interesting practice. I assumed that the map wouldn’t extend much further than the main urban core of the county, but it really did pick up most of the peninsulas (if I can call those neighborhoods that) and some precincts in south county (mostly around and in towns though).

And, here is why I think I can do a lot better than this map. I think turnout is going to have a big part to play. Not only was Blake’s party label a factor, but turnout dropped a lot in 2014. For the next post I’m going to play around with trying to find out how an increase in turnout this year will change the dymanic.

Expanding truth behind why Ritchie Brothers moved to Napavine

One of the best-loved tales about the Thurston County commission is how they “chased” Ritchie Brothers, an auction business dealing in large equipment (cranes, tractors and such) out of the county a few years ago.

I’ve poked around before looking for evidence of this, but I never really came up with anything. But, the story keeps getting repeated (without much, if any, citation), so I thought I’d dig down into it.

But, what I’ve yet to find is any sort of smoking gun, any sort of specific example that anyone can point to as the axle upon which this County Commission vs. Ritchie Brothers narrative can turn.

There’s not expansion proposed that the county shuts down because of environmental protections. There’s no new expensive sewer system. Nothing.

So, let’s take a look back where this all begins when the Ritchie Brothers company starts talking about a possible move from Thurston County.

Centralia Chronicle in 2009:

Even with a stumbling economy, businesses and people still show up by the thousands to place their bids. If anything, Cunningham thinks the recession has helped business. 

“Instead of buying new equipment, more people are looking to buy used equipment,” she said. 

Things have picked up so much for the auction company at their location off of exit 95 in South Thurston County that they’re potentially mulling an expansion to Lewis County, due to some of the possibilities along Interstate 5. 

Unsure of when or where the auction will move to, Giroux is absolutely certain more space is needed than the current location offers. 

“It’s not nearly enough room here,” Giroux said. “We’re bursting at the seams, and we’re definitely interested in finding a much larger parcel. But whether we go north or south depends on the property availability.” 

And the price, he added.

In the Olympian, a few years later:

Co-founder Dave Ritchie was on hand for Thursday’s grand opening as was current president Rob Mackay. Mackay said the company simply had outgrown the Thurston County site.

Given the opportunity to throw shade, the Ritchie Brothers’ folks did not. At every turn when asked, they’d respond: we don’t have enough room, we want something larger. While there were likely parcels in Thurston County that could’ve been big enough, combining one that would’ve been appropriate for a commercial operation and near Interstate 5 was likely a hard find.

At least from the company itself, you can’t find the narrative that Thurston County government was being mean and chased them out.

Once you start looking down in Lewis County after the auction company moved south, you start to see a new narrative form.

Centralia Chronicle, 2012:

“We love Lewis County so far,” Mills said. 

The company moved to the new site right off Interstate 5’s exit 68 from its previous location at Maytown in Thurston County. The new 200-acre facility quadruples the size of the Thurston County site. 

“The county worked with Ritchie Bros. to get them to come here,” said Lewis County Commissioner Ron Averill of Centralia. “We worked hard to make sure we weren’t posing any unnecessary restrictions on them.” 

The county had to rezone the property for commercial use because it sat on agricultural resource land. Ritchie Bros. will now hold five auctions a year in Lewis County. 

Averill said Ritchie Bros. brought about $1 million a year to Thurston County 

“When you consider the county gets one percent sales tax, that’s significant,” Averill said.

Still the Ritchie Brothers company itself is consistent, there was more room (four times the room) for them to operate near Napavine. Being that it’s Lewis County too, the land was likely cheaper while still being right next to I-5.

What you do see is a Lewis County Commissioner throw shade north, at least indirectly. Lewis County wanted to make sure they had a smooth landing, see? But, even there, he’s not referencing any specific problem Ritchie Brothers had with Thurston County.

If anything, it was the Ritchie Brothers company that hurt the economic possibility of their old site. When they moved on, they placed a deed restriction on the parcels to ensure another auction company wouldn’t move in behind them.

From the same 2012 Olympian story:

The Thurston County buyers won’t be offering auction services on the property because of a deed restriction placed on it by RitchieBros., said Troy Dana of Olympia-based Dana Commercial Real Estate. He said his client, which offered auction services but does not compete with Ritchie Bros., declined to bid after learning about the deed restriction. 

“It took away part of the business model,” Dana said. He said his client, an undisclosed out-of-state business, was prepared to bid up to $2.5 million for the three parcels. Instead, the property sold for $1.47 million. 

“That’s the impact of the deed restriction,” Dana said.

But, despite the deed restriction that limited the use of the property, it sold anyway. And, again it became a going concern, pumping money into the Thurston County economy.

And, this is where the entire County Commission vs. Good Business thread falls apart. When you take a drive down I-5 to what was the old Ritchie Brothers site. Instead of laying empty the site is now occupied by a very similar business, Valley Freightliners. While Ritchie Brothers held periodic auctions for used large equipment, Valley Freightliners is a regular dealer in new and used semi-trailer trucks.

If it were true that the Thurston County commissioners were chasing retail large equipment sales out of the county, they were doing a really bad job of it if Freigtliner was ready to move right back in.

Thurston County EDC in 2012:

Initially VFI was searching for land when broker Don Moody of CBRE brought this high visibility site to their attention. Previously owned by Ritchie Bros. Auctioneers, VFI purchased a 34 acre parcel along with the existing high bay structures.

“It presented a great location on I-5 with an existing infrastructure that aligns with our needs,” said Bernasconi. The location has good access and visibility, along with ample parking. It also has an existing facility that fits the truck dealership model.

Some minor remodeling and basic updates will be done to optimize its use. “We’re hoping to get permit approval from the county in the next couple weeks,” shared Bernasconi.

I had one one last place to look for a smoking gun. I thought since permitting and land use records are available online, I’d find some sort of file of correspondence between Ritchie Brothers and the county.

Going through the permits and paperwork online at Thurston County, I was only able to find one active project around that same time. Ritchie Brothers was working on a permit for a septic system for a ten person office building and auction yard. You can search through the documents here (use the tax parcel number 12605330400).

From my reading of the permit file of the parcel, activity seems to drop off as Ritchie Brothers start exploring new opportunities in 2009 and then it picks back up when Valley Freightliners moves in three years later.

Either way, if they were looking to get out of the sewer/septic business by heading south, it looks like they’re out of luck.

Longview Daily News:

Two multimillion-dollar auctions that were cause for celebration last year now are the cause of a pricey renovation for Ritchie Bros. Auctioneers at its freeway site between Napavine and Winlock. 

The state Department of Health is mandating that the heavy equipment auction company upgrade its onsite sewage system, which could cost up to $70,000. During two auctions last year, the 3,500-gallon septic tank — the size usually used by small commercial businesses — was overwhelmed, said Denise Lahmann, the program and reclaimed water supervisor for the Office of Shellfish and Water Protection at the Department of Health. 

For Lewis County, the costly mistake could become a lucrative new business venture — if the Richie Bros. goes along.

According to the Lewis County Commissioners, Ritchie Bros. has expressed interest in partnering to build a commercial-level sewage system — one the county could use to encourage further development around Exit 68, where Interstate 5 and state Route 12 meet.

And, a letter to the editor in the Centralia Chronicle:

I read your article, in last Saturday’s issue, regarding problems that Ritchie Bros. are having with the State of Washington regarding its current septic sewer system. 

I have been aware, for quite some time, that Lewis County was wasting time and valuable taxpayer funds in an effort to justify a separate and additional “wastewater system” to benefit not only Ritchie Bros., but “potential” development of “new restaurants and hotels” in the Exit 68 area. 

Excuse me, but Ritchie Bros. is in the city of Napavine service area, and service to that facility is within Napavine’s State of Washington approved comprehensive, water and sewer plans. 

Additionally, Napavine has sufficient capacity within its water and wastewater facilities to service the entire Exit 68 area as is indicated in our water and wastewater plans.
It seems to me that Lewis County, rather than working with the city of Napavine, is participating in a naked power grab in the guise of “helping” Ritchie Bros.

And, lastly, if not for some mysterious sewer debacle that has been left unmentioned, what about the impact of Ritchie Brothers leaving Thurston County. Even if the county commissioners did not wage an open war against large scale heavy equipment auction houses, certainly them leaving tanked the county’s sale tax receipts.

Maybe even the appearance of Valley Freightliners didn’t save the day for the county economy.

But, if you spread out taxable activity in Thurston County from 1995 to 2014 (the most recent annual data available) the Ritchie Brothers impact in nearly invisible. Here’s the data I’m working from and here is the source.

But, this chart I think speaks for itself. It tracks taxable sales activity in unincorporated Thurston County by units and total taxable.

Certainly you do see a dip in taxable activity from 2011 to 2012, and possibly that is the time when Ritchie Brothers was wrapping up and Valley Freightliners was coming online. But, there is no blip in the units line, which consistently shoots upwards.

What this chart does show is a steep increase in taxable activity in unincorporated Thurston County since 2008. That’s when Sandra Romero was elected. Just in case you’re still tracking me.

Improving Gary Edwards’ math

A few weeks ago I took a shot at Gary Edwards’ fuzzy math on population change in Thurston County. In this post I wanted to take a closer look at the deeper assumptions in what he’s trying to get at.

His point (basically) was that although the population has increased in Thurston County, the number of deputies has stayed the same. The problem was that the population has increased (in unincorporated Thurston County) only half the amount he claimed. Which is okay, from his point of view, I suppose because population still went up while the number of deputies stayed flat.

But, that statement seems to assume a result, such as an increase in crime. So, let’s take a look.

1995 Most recent Difference
Lacey 50.00 64.60 14.60
Olympia 67.80 86.30 18.50
Yelm 75.90 78.00 2.10
Tenino 86.00 42.00 -44.00
Tumwater 75.30 84.20 8.90
Thurston unincorporated 32.90 36.30 3.40

So, what it looks like here is that the crime rate did go up in Thurston County, but not nearly the rate that it increased in Lacey and Olympia. If we have a problem with an increase in crime, its in the urban areas, not in rural Thurston County with its stable level of policing.

Also, let’s take a look at another metric, the total number of police in each Thurston County city and the ratio of police to population:

1995 total 2015 total Change 1995 ratio 2015 ratio Change
Lacey 38 50 12 1.51 1.08 -0.43
Olympia 67 68 1 1.8 1.33 -0.47
Yelm 9 12 3 4.3 1.47 -2.83
Tenino 5 2 -3 2.38 0.87 -1.51
Rainier 4 0 -4 2.78 0 -2.78
Tumwater 20 22 2 1.93 1.41 -0.52
Thurston unincorporated 79 80 1 0.72 0.57 -0.15

Every police department has seen a decrease in the number of police on patrol compared to the population. By this metric, the ratio of police per person has dropped the least in the Thurston County sheriff’s office than anywhere else locally.

So, while Edwards is still right that population went up and the level of policing stayed stable, he’s implying a connection that really isn’t there. The Thurston County sheriff’s department saw a stable cop to resident ratio (compared to other local law enforcement departments) and this did not result in an increase in crime. 


Also, here’s the spreadsheet (plus references) I was working from all along, just in case you want to check my math.

The best reason they should change the name of the North Thurston School District

Mayor of Lacey Andy Ryder (and North Thurston grad):


“It would be a great sort of present from the school district that to acknowledge that they are our school district,” Ryder said.

Mr. Lacey Ken Balsley:


The school district must become part of the community. Sometimes it takes a great deal of effort. Some times its as simple as taking on the name of the community it represents.

I think in a lot of ways, Balsley and Ryder and right, even though more people live in the not-Lacey unincorporated parts of the school district.

Lacey population (2014): 45,446
North Thurston population (2014): 97,942
Non-Lacey, NTSD: 53,496

But, beyond numbers, there is a better reason to drop Thurston all together. The original Thurston was a racist liar and the moniker itself was forced on us by Oregonians.


You can read much much more about Samuel Thurston, the 1850s Oregon representative who our county is named after here: Why do we still call it Thurston County?

But, here is the too-long-didn’t-read on Thurston:

  • Despite an agreement in treaty, Thurston worked to screw British citizens out of property in the newly American territory in the 1850s.
  • Thurston was the primary force behind racial exclusion laws that outlawed racial minorities to moving to the Oregon Territory (which Washington was once part of).
  • And, when Washington Territory was separated from the Oregon Territory, it was Oregon delegates that chose to honor Sam Thurston (who had recently died), not people from what was then becoming Washington.

Checking Gary Edwards’ Math

Former Thurston County Sheriff Gary Edwards is running for county commissioner. So, it would make a lot of sense that he’s making public safety (more cops on the streets, or deputies on the road) a campaign priority.

Number two in fact:

I can’t disagree with his statement that the number of deputies hasn’t increased in over 20 years, but I thought I’d check his population numbers.

As I’ve been reminded, the Thurston County Sheriff only works in the unincorporated parts of the county. So, “the population” that his statement refers to must be the unincorporated population. Otherwise, the statement wouldn’t be unnecessarily inflated.

But, either way, he’s wrong.

1995 Most recent Difference
Thurston 192,013 262,388 70,375
Lacey 26,419 44,919
Olympia 39,292 48,338
Yelm 2,242 8,223
Tenino 1,299 1709
Rainier 1,350 1,923
Tumwater 11,534 18,820
Incorporated subtotal 82,136 123,932
Thurston unincorporated 109,877 138,456 28,579

He could use the top number, the total difference between Thurston County in 1995 and right now and be closer to his 60,000 number. But lumping in the populations of cities covered by their own police forces would be misleading.
Or, he could cut his number in half and be more accurate. But, the number would seem less impressive, especially against a six figure total population figure.
What really impacts me is that this table took me all of ten minutes to put together. Getting the accurate number wasn’t hard for me, Edwards should have bothered to do the same work. Not doing so make it seem like to me that this is more along the lines of something he heard somewhere and decided to make a campaign platform.
It is also worth noting that a total population is not a very good standard for judging the effectiveness of policing. What would be a better standard would be comparing crime rates in 1995 and 2016, right?

Race in Thurston County by maps

Statistical Atlas, in a lot of ways, is something I’ve spent a lot of time pinning for. While the tool is very simply just overlaying public census data over a map, this is the kind of visualization that hasn’t been freely available. And, it opens up (more easily) a broader discussion of how and where we live.

Take for example, race in Thurston County.

Thurston County is a pretty white place, but there are a few interesting features of this map. There are a couple of corners where whiteness is not a majority. One stretch of far Lacey, the area around the Nisqually reservation and small section near Grand Mound in the south:

The first hole in the whiteness map is explained by this map of hispanic populations (topping at 45 percent). The small area around Grand Mound is a plurality hispanic area:

This map on black population (topping out at 15.8 percent) shows another major theme. While the central part of urban Thurston County is pretty white, most minority populations are located in nearby neighborhoods of Tumwater or older portions of Lacey. Showing why possibly it was a really good idea to move the county’s ethnic celebration to Lacey.

You see the same pattern here with the Asian map (topping at 18 percent), but instead of Tumwater, the westside and noticeably Cooper Point. You also have here an explanation of the second non-white majority area, with Asian being the plurality.

And, “other,” which from a reading of the map, would probably mean Native American, given the deeper reds closer to the Nisqually Reservation (topping at 39.7 percent), which is the third non-white majority area.

These are fascinating maps. I was fairly surprised by how white this particular tract was in downtown Olympia. Well, not totally surprised. I suppose it does back up what I would’ve assumed had I thought about it for a few minutes. But almost 95 percent white was a surprising number.

Did E.J. Zita repeat Sue Gunn? No, she did not

Go right to the map.

A couple of years ago, I drew a map showing how former port commissioner Sue Gunn did an amazing job connecting anti-establishment voters in the rural and urban neighborhoods.


She had the ability to run as a non-partisan, showing then how you could connect the bottom ends of the so-called (by me) Cascadian Political Spectrum. Typically, partisan elections in Thurston County roll out with the more liberal (Democratic) candidate winning the north county, with the more conservative candidate (typically Republican) winning in the south.
The likely victor is decided by how many voters in the connecting suburban districts turn their heads toward them.
Sue Gunn flipped this equation by winning both the urban area and the rural south, with the connecting suburbs going to her opponent, Jeff Davis.
Unfortunately, Sue had to retire because of health concerns. She’ll likely be replaced by E.J. Zita, an Evergreen State College professor and south county resident. At least on the surface, it seemed likely that Zita might be able to repeat Sue’s run.
But, when you look at the map of the (very very close) results, Zita will have won by the more traditional liberal’s route in Olympia, through urban Thurston County.
Zita did win a handful of precincts in the south county, and Jerry Farmer (her opponent) seemingly owned the suburban neighborhoods. But, Zita’s high margins in Olympia seemingly put her over the top.
It is worth noting that liberals (Democrats) usually win in Thurston County, so it isn’t that exciting to note that the liberal won again. The notable thing in 2013 was that Gunn (a former Democratic Progressive Independent candidate for congress) beat a fellow Democrat (Davis) by being more liberal. Or, she was at least more anti-establishment.

Because of Sue Gunn (not Bud Blake), maybe an independent can win in the 22nd LD

When Budd Blake won a county commission seat in Thurston County after running without a party label, it got me thinking again about political labelling and political organizations. From what I can tell, Blake wasn’t a true independent. He won with the backing of what really is the conservative organization in Thurston County, nominally Republican, pro-growth (building industry) and pro-property rights.

On the other hand, in a non-partisan race recently, another sort of independent won. Sue Gunn was pretty much an antiestablishment candidate. From what I found when I looked at her returns was a candidate that spanned both traditionally very liberal and very conservative voters.

Just some background reading before we get into the meat of this post:

Sue Gunn won uniting the non-establishment middle in Thurston County, traditional Republican voters who didn’t like public subsidies for private business and traditional Democrats who felt the same.

This is pretty different than the type of voter that I see going for Budd Blake. Granted, there were a few traditional Democrats, but they were further in the establishment middle, the ones who were comfortable voting for a business friendly centrist against an environmentalist liberal.

But, now look at Sue Gunn’s returns in 2013 when you narrow them down to the 22nd LD. Its a given that Gunn was running in a local only election in 2013, there was very little on the ballot that drove partisan leanings. But, she did eke out an 51 percent victory in the precincts that make up the 22nd LD.

And, if you assume that the current seat-holders in the 22nd are more like Jeff Davis (who lost to Gunn), you could see a roadmap of how a Gunn-like independent could win.

There’s probably a lot more I could do with the data, finding out exactly how Gunn won how she did in the 22nd. Did she win over both traditional Republican and Democratic voters? Or did all of her support in the 22nd come from traditional Democrats? I’d assume if it was the latter, it would be harder to pull enough support in a partisan race.

Gross Happiness Index of Washington: Thurston County is only just above average happy

Happiness Indexes are pretty interesting. They try to reach back beyond sterile, single factor indices (like Gross National Product) and give you a clearer picture of the health or happiness of a place.

So, obviously, I wanted to do one for Washington State.

I took some indicators that I could find data on the county level for across the GNH scale (economics, education, health, violence and democracy) and came up with a Gross Happiness Index of Washington Counties.

Certainly, there is a massive back of the napkin warning here, I’m not an economist or a statistician, but here are the general rankings:

County Overall rank Average rank
San Juan 1 4.20
Whitman 2 6.67
Garfield 3 11.60
Lincoln 4 11.80
Island 5 12.00
Douglas 6 12.80
Jefferson 7 13.00
Walla Walla 8 14.17
Whatcom 9 14.67
Kitsap 10 15.17
Klickitat 11 15.60
Wahkiakum 12 15.80
Ferry 13 16.20
King 14 16.50
Chelan 15 16.67
Snohomish 16 17.33
Thurston 17 18.17
Kittitas 18 19.00
Columbia 19 19.00
Clark 20 19.17
Benton 21 19.83
Skagit 22 19.83
Skamania 23 21.60
Pend Oreille 24 21.60
Adams 25 21.83
Lewis 26 22.17
Okanogan 27 22.33
Grant 28 23.00
Spokane 29 23.33
Franklin 30 23.50
Asotin 31 23.50
Clallam 32 23.67
Mason 33 24.00
Stevens 34 24.83
Pierce 35 27.00
Pacific 36 27.60
Grays Harbor 37 28.33
Cowlitz 38 28.50
Yakima 39 30.17

Digging down into the Thurston County, it is interesting to see what shapes our ranking.

We do pretty well in Health (9th) and Pollution (10th) and average in Economic (17th), Education (18th) and Crime (21st).

But, our worst index is voter turnout. Out of 39 counties, we are 34th in voter turnout. Which, if you think of the symbolism of us being the home of the state capitol (totally crap symbolism) is pretty sad.

I think its also interesting that in terms of our neighborhood, we’re the shining freaking star. Practically all four counties that border Thurston are in the basement of the GHI. Lewis (26th) Mason (33rd), Pierce (35th), and Grays Harbor (37th) all fall well below Thurston County in happiness.

Yeah us! We’re above average!

Just because Bud Blake won a county commission seat doesn’t mean an independent can win in the 22nd LD

When you think about politics in Thurston County, the 22nd legislative district is the Democratic liberal juicy middle in what is a pretty typical rural or suburban western Washington county. This is where the urban communities are, this is where the liberals are.

This is a district that hasn’t elected a Republican since 1980 when W.H Garson of Tenino went to the legislative building. This is also when the 22nd LD was big enough geographically to send someone from Tenino to the legislative building.

Just a side note: since Thurston County population shot through the roof in the 1970s, I’d assume that redistricting was particularly unkind to Republicans in the 22nd in the 1980s. What probably happened was the district shrank geographically given the boost of urban population, giving it its liberal contour today.

Anyway.

Bud Blake was the first conservative to win a county commissioner seat in Thurston County for a long time, most likely because he ran as an independent against a Democratic. And, he won in a convincing fashion.

I was wondering if a county-wide election for a Republican in independent clothing meant the same sort of strategy could equal the same result in the smaller, liberal 22nd LD. Well, it does not.

But, man, it would be close. If you isolate the 22nd LD precincts (the way I did in that link above), you see a pretty tight race. Democrat Karen Valenzuela would have won with just over 51 percent, or 2,000 votes out of over 40,000.

But, a win is still a win.

That said, I think a legislative race would have been even harder for an independent (especially a conservative one) to win over a Democrat. I suspect that strictly partisan issues (like abortion, environmental protection, taxes) could be isolated in a way that they couldn’t be on a local general government election.

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